MLB best bets: Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals odds, pick and predictions for 4/22

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals Odds

Monday, April 22, 7:45 p.m. ET, MLB.TV

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks biggest question through three weeks is what happened to Corbin Carroll? The youthful centerfielder injected energy into the Diamondbacks' lineup and helped lead them to a World Series appearance in 2023. He was an All-Star and looked like an MVP candidate for years to come. Now, Carroll is hitting .216 with a 79 wRC+ in his sophomore season. He’s a key ingredient to the Diamondbacks' offensive concoction and has been a shell of himself.

While Carroll struggles, Ketel Marte is an inferno. In the past seven games, Marte is 13-for-31 (.419) with two homers.

The Diamondbacks gave scuffling sluggers Christian Walker and Eugenio Suarez the day off on Sunday. Walker hit just .160 over the past week and Suarez is hitting .164 over the past 15 games. Suarez is usually streaky, but it’s getting to the point where the Diamondbacks should consider other everyday options at third base.

While Cardinals' starter Lance Lynn has been lucky, D'backs' starter Brandon Pfaadt is on the other end of the spectrum. Pfaadt is coming off his best start of the year as he held the Cubs to six hits and two runs over seven innings. The Diamondbacks expected Pfaadt to develop into a legitimate star, but he’s posted a 5.32 ERA over 23 2/3 innings. However, things should get better, as his 4.12 FIP and 3.82 XFIP indicate brighter days await.

Take a look at our bet365 Arizona Bonus Code review to learn more about the sportsbook's exciting welcome offers.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are 9-13, but coming off a series loss against the Brewers. The NL Central is wide open, so capitalizing on games in April could determine who wins the division in September.

The Cardinals biggest problem through 22 games is their offense. St Louis ranks near the bottom of the league with a dreadful 83 wRC+. Paul Goldschmidt is struggling and hitting .179 with a 48 wRC+ over 78 at bats. Goldschmidt also leads Cardinals' regulars with a 28.4% strikeout rate. That’s a potential sign of the 36-year-old losing bat speed. That's not uncommon for an older player, but could be the beginning of the end for the former MVP.

Plus, Nolan Arenado’s 105 wRC+ is barely above league average, while youngsters Nolan Gorman (48 wRC+) and Jordan Walker (65 wRC+) have produced replacement level numbers.

Lynn's numbers look strong — a 2.19 ERA with 18 strikeouts over 20 2/3 innings. However, the underlying numbers tell a different story. Lynn’s FIP is 4.92 and his xFIP is 4.49. Lynn doesn’t thrown hard anymore and is getting hit extremely hard, which should lead to hits and runs as time goes on.

Diamondbacks vs. Cardinals

Betting Pick & Prediction

I’ll take the Diamondbacks moneyline at -109. I don’t love the -109 number and was hoping for closer to even money, but won’t complain too much about -109 for a team that could pounce on the Cardinals' starter. I’m looking to stay away from Lynn until we get a larger sample and can decide whether he’s still good or just lucky.

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline