San Francisco Giants outfielder Michael Conforto (8). Ed Szczepanski-USA TODAY Sports

MLB home run props for 5/10: Giant payoff for a Conforto dinger

By Jack Dougherty | Last updated 5/10/24

We had the right read on which teams to target with home run props on Thursday, but we unfortunately chose the wrong players. Let's turn things around and finish the week with a bang. Here are the three HR bets we're taking for Friday's MLB slate.

Rhys Hoskins (+420 FanDuel)

Cardinals at Brewers, 8:10 p.m. ET

If you've been following us for a while, you know we love nothing more than fading Lance Lynn with home run props. The St. Louis Cardinals starter consistently challenges hitters with fastballs, which is why he gives up the eighth-highest barrel rate in MLB among qualified pitchers. Rhys Hoskins is the perfect target here because he's a boom-or-bust hitter. The Milwaukee Brewers slugger is batting just .220 this season, but he leads the team in home runs (eight) and ranks 15th in the league in barrel rate (15.1 percent).

Shohei Ohtani (+340 FD)

Royals at Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

We don't bet Shohei Ohtani very often because his price is always so low, but +340 feels too high for all the factors working in his favor on Friday night. For one, the Los Angeles Dodgers superstar leads MLB in barrel rate at 24.8 percent, while no other qualified hitter has a barrel rate higher than 19.6 percent. He has the highest batting average (.355) and the highest slugging percentage (.678) in baseball this year, and he's already cracked three home runs in only nine career at-bats against San Diego Padres starter Michael King. This price should be lower than +300.

Michael Conforto (+750 FD)

Reds at Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Reds starter Andrew Abbott is the perfect pitcher to fade with a home run prop. The left-hander is giving up the highest fly ball rate in MLB among qualified pitchers, and he's surrendered multiple homers in three of his last four starts. Oh, and the wind will be blowing strongly out to center field at Oracle Park on Friday night. Micahel Conforto is batting .444 with. 1.489 OPS and two home runs over the last week, and he leads the San Francisco Giants with three homers and a .576 slugging percentage against lefties this season. He shouldn't be this high-priced.

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