White lies, black lies, and statistics – Do they show the outcome of this year’s EPL title race?

White lies, black lies, and statistics – the outcome of this year’s Premier League title race

An old proverb defines three types of lies: white lies, black lies, and statistics. This entire post is a lie, but a conscious lie with no intentions of cheating. There are now ten rounds left of the PL season. Looking at the last ten games, here are my conclusions regarding how it will all pan out.

It surely won’t end this way and I know that, but statistics can be great fun anyhow. Not least when there is no game in sight for yet another week… So here goes.

Arsenal sit on top of the league. The last eight games each ended in three points for us. In case the next ten games are equally successful, we will end up at 94 points and only a tremendous run from Liverpool, winning as much but scoring more and conceding less goals than us, could possibly make us number 2. However. Our last ten games include two losses, against Fulham and West Ham, remember? We will thus take 24, not 30 points over the ten games to come. I am sorry, but ManCity are in a better run of form than us, having picked up 26 points in the last ten – drawing only twice, against Chelsea and Liverpool. And then, what about Liverpool? They have lost once, against the Gunners – and drawn once, against Man City. Still, this is better than us, one point better to be precise – 25 points in the last ten games for Liverpool.

If we disregard the general pressure of two games per week, the possibility of injuries, dubious VAR decisions, points deduction due to economic misconduct and so on and so forth, statistics tells us the following:

Man City, currently at 63, will get 26 more and end up with 89 points. Liverpool, currently at 64, will get 25 more and end up with 89 points as well. Only goal difference will separate the two. Arsenal, currently at 64, will get 24 more and end up with 88 points. Sorry, Gooners, but we’ll be one point short and finish as bronze medalists!

How about the next in line?

Aston Villa, currently at 56 with nine games left to play, will get 15,3 more and end up with 71,3 points (sorry, stupid number, but statistics are statistics!). Tottenham, currently at 53, will get 17 more and end up with 70 points. Saint Totteringham’s Day will surely be celebrated soon, folks!

ManUtd, currently at 47, will get 19 more and end up with 66 points. Conference League in sight for the Red Devils. Wolves, currently at 41, will get 19 more and end up with 60 points. Brighton, currently at 42, will get 15 more and end up with 57 points. WestHam, currently at 44 with nine games left to play, will get 9,9 more and end up with 53,9 points. Saudi supported Newcastle, currently at 40 will get only 11 more and end up with 51 points.

How do you feel, Gooners? Can statistics have anything meaningful to tell us, or is this game of numbers just a waste of time?

-Per Pippin Aspaas

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